ISBN: 9783834915252 - forecasting models for the german office market (8 risultati)

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Taschenbuch. Condizione: Neu. Druck auf Anfrage Neuware - Printed after ordering - This work is motivated by the research gap evident in the area of forecasting models for the German office market. Since rent, price or yield forecasting research is mainly done by commercially oriented organizations, this work delivers an examination from a scientific point of view. Thus the focus is set on an empirical investigation of several rent and total yield forecasting models for nine major German cities. Their applicability and performance are analyzed and city as well as forecasting horiz- specific patterns are determined and interpreted. After the literature review, mainly covering Anglo-Saxon research, I derive the theoretical foundations which are important in executing the empirical part of the work. Therefore, I discuss theoretically general real estate market characteristics, the specifics of time series and panel data, common forecasting models, and forecasting techniques as well as performance measures. The major findings of the first part of the empirical work, which contains the rent series investigation, is that ARIMA, GARCH and multivariate regression models are generally able to forecast rent series in the German office market. Furthermore, I observed that GARCH models are able to outperform single ARIMA models for forecasting horizons of three to five years, when increased volatility appears within the respective city rent series. Moreover, univariate models outperform multivariate regression models in the short run. On the other hand, multivariate regression models outperform the univariate models in the longer run. However, I found cities where one model permanently dominates. …

Taschenbuch. Condizione: Neu. This item is printed on demand - it takes 3-4 days longer - Neuware -In every market with free floating prices, all market participants are interested in the future developments of these prices. However, there is an evident research gap for forecasting models for the German office market. Alexander Bönner closes this gap by focusing on an empirical investigation of several rent and total yield forecasting models for nine major German cities. The applicability and performance of ARIMA, GARCH and multivariate regression models are analyzed and city as well as forecasting horizon-specific patterns are determined and interpreted. Univariate rent forecasting models generally outperform multivariate rent forecasting regression models in the short run. In the long run, multivariate regression models dominate. However, one must bear in mind that in some cities one model permanently outperforms the other. Eventually, the rent level is mainly determined by its economic fundamentals, which is also demonstrated for the total yield examination. Univariate and multivariate regression models Theoretical fundamentals of common forecasting models and the real estate market; Empirical part: Rent and total yield forecasting models for nine major German office markets. Investigation also for different forecasting horizons 196 pp. Englisch.…

Condizione: New. Dieser Artikel ist ein Print on Demand Artikel und wird nach Ihrer Bestellung fuer Sie gedruckt. Dr. Alexander Boenner promovierte bei Prof. Dr. Pascal Gantenbein am Schweizerischen Institut fuer Banken und Finanzen an der Universitaet St. Gallen (Schweiz). Er ist als wissenschaftlicher Assistent am Lehrstuhl fuer Finanzwirtschaft der St. Gallen bei Prof. .…

Taschenbuch. Condizione: Neu. This item is printed on demand - Print on Demand Titel. Neuware -In every market with free floating prices, all market participants are interested in the future developments of these prices. However, there is an evident research gap for forecasting models for the German office market.Alexander Bönner closes this gap by focusing on an empirical investigation of several rent and total yield forecasting models for nine major German cities. The applicability and performance of ARIMA, GARCH and multivariate regression models are analyzed and city as well as forecasting horizon-specific patterns are determined and interpreted. Univariate rent forecasting models generally outperform multivariate rent forecasting regression models in the short run. In the long run, multivariate regression models dominate. However, one must bear in mind that in some cities one model permanently outperforms the other. Eventually, the rent level is mainly determined by its economic fundamentals, which is also demonstrated for the total yield examination.Gabler, Betriebswirt.-Vlg, Abraham-Lincoln-Str. 46, 65189 Wiesbaden 196 pp. Englisch.…