Titolo: How to Expect the Unexpected: The Science of Making Predictions and the Art of Knowing When Not To
Editore: Quercus Publishing
Data di pubblicazione: 2023
Lingua: Inglese
ISBN 10: 1529408679
ISBN 13: 9781529408676
Rilegatura: Paperback
Condizione: Very Good
Peso: 531 grammi

Descrizione articolo

Riassunto

A Waterstones Best Popular Science Book of 2023

'Delightfully clear and vivid to read...A splendid book! Philip Pullman

'Absolutely fascinating' James O'Brien

'An exceptional book - readable, funny and more needed than ever' Dr Chris van Tulleken, bestselling author of Ultra-Processed People

� Are you more likely to become a professional footballer if your surname is Ball?
� How can you be one hundred per cent sure you will win a bet?
� Why did so many Pompeiians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting?
� How do you prevent a nuclear war?

Ever since the dawn of human civilisation, we have been trying to make predictions about what's in store for us. We do this on a personal level, so that we can get on with our lives efficiently (should I hang my laundry out to dry, or will it rain?). But we also have to predict on a much larger scale, often for the good of our broader society (how can we spot economic downturns or prevent terrorist attacks?).

For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Our job is to separate the good from the bad. Unfortunately, the foibles of our own biology - the biases that ultimately make us human - can let us down when it comes to making rational inferences about the world around us. And that can have disastrous consequences.

How to Expect the Unexpected will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct.

Dalla quarta di copertina

A fascinating exploration of how we can make better, accessible, mathematically-informed predictions about the world around us.

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In 2002, World of Books Group was founded on an ethos to do good, protect the planet and support charities by enabling more goods to be reused. Since then, we've grown into to a global company pioneering the circular economy. Today, we drive the circular economy through three re-commerce brands: - Wob: Through Wob, we sell. We provide affordable, preloved books and media to customers all over the world. A book leaves our collection of over seven million titles and begins a new chapter every two seconds, enabling more goods to be reused. - Ziffit: Through Ziffit, we buy. We give people around the world the opportunity to contribute to the circular economy, earn money and protect the planet, by trading their unwanted books and media. - Shopiago: Through Shopiago, we help others. By sharing the technology that has grown World of Books Group into the business it is today, we?re helping charities increase revenue and reduce waste through re-commerce.

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