Jeffrey a friedman (105 risultati)

Hardback. Condizione: Good. Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong.In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman shows how foreign policy officials often try to avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate.A clear-eyed examination of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty, War and Chance provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse. …

Hardback. Condizione: Good. Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong.In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman shows how foreign policy officials often try to avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate.A clear-eyed examination of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty, War and Chance provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse. …

Softcover. Condizione: Très bon. Ancien livre de bibliothèque avec équipements. Edition 2007. Ammareal reverse jusqu'à 15% du prix net de cet article à des organisations caritatives. ENGLISH DESCRIPTION Book Condition: Used, Very good. Former library book. Edition 2007. Ammareal gives back up to 15% of this item's net price to charity organizations. …

Condizione: As New. Unread book in perfect condition.

Condizione: New.

Paperback. Condizione: New.

hardcover. Condizione: Very Good. Connecting readers with great books since 1972! Used books may not include companion materials, and may have some shelf wear or limited writing. We ship orders daily and Customer Service is our top priority.

Paperback. Condizione: Very Good. What Caused the Financial Crisis This book is in very good condition and will be shipped within 24 hours of ordering. The cover may have some limited signs of wear but the pages are clean, intact and the spine remains undamaged. This book has clearly been well maintained and looked after thus far. Money back guarantee if you are not satisfied. See all our books here, order more than 1 book and get discounted shipping. .…

Hardcover. Condizione: Good. The book is in good condition with a sturdy hardcover binding. The dust jacket shows minor wear but remains intact, protecting the book effectively. There are no inscriptions, signatures, or library markings, indicating it has been well-preserved.

Paperback. Condizione: Very Good. Shipped within 24 hours from our UK warehouse. Clean, undamaged book with no damage to pages and minimal wear to the cover. Spine still tight, in very good condition. Remember if you are not happy, you are covered by our 100% money back guarantee.

hardcover. Condizione: Very Good. Shipped within 24 hours from our UK warehouse. Clean, undamaged book with no damage to pages and minimal wear to the cover. Spine still tight, in very good condition. Remember if you are not happy, you are covered by our 100% money back guarantee.

Condizione: New.

Condizione: New. In English.

hardcover. Condizione: Very Good. HARDCOVER Very Good - Crisp, clean, unread book with some shelfwear/edgewear, may have a remainder mark - NICE Standard-sized.

hardcover. Condizione: Very Good.

Condizione: New.

Hardcover. Condizione: Used; Good.

hardcover. Condizione: VeryGood. Pages are New and Unused, Front or Back cover is damaged- torn, wrinkled or dented., A copy that may have been read, very minimal wear and tear. May have a remainder mark.

Condizione: As New. Unread book in perfect condition.

hardcover. Condizione: VG. Condizione sovraccoperta: VG. Signed 1st edition, 1st printing, Oxford University Press hardcover w/ DJ, 2019. Book is VG, w/ clean text, tight binding; very lightly bumped corners. DJ is VG, w/ very light edge/shelf wear (no tears or chips). Signed by author (and inscribed to someone who helped with researching the book) on title page. Free delivery confirmation.…

Condizione: New.

Paperback. Condizione: New. Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong.In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman shows how foreign policy officials often try to avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate.A clear-eyed examination of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty, War and Chance provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse. …

Condizione: As New. Unread book in perfect condition.

Paperback or Softback. Condizione: New. War and Chance: Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics. Book.

hardcover. Condizione: VeryGood. A copy that may have been read, very minimal wear and tear. May have a remainder mark.

Condizione: New. Brand New.

Condizione: New. 2021. Paperback. . . . . .

Condizione: As New. Unread book in perfect condition.

Condizione: New.

hardcover. Condizione: LikeNew. Used Like New, no missing pages, no damage to binding, may have a remainder mark.