Yuri g raydugin (42 risultati)

Condizione: New. Brand New.

Condizione: New.

Condizione: New.

Condizione: New.

Taschenbuch. Condizione: Neu. Druck auf Anfrage Neuware - Printed after ordering - This book integrates for readers three areas of knowledge, pertaining to risk-based project decision making: project risk management (PRM), complexity theory, and decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU). Readers will appreciate that in practice, too often relevant complexity and uncertainty factors are either ignored or overlooked resulting in epic project failures. The author discusses a variety of methodologies and a decision-tree-type framework to determine why, when and how particular methodologies should be applied to ensure project success. These include nonlinear Monte Carlo techniques, a dynamic adaptive methodology to adapt to external environment changes, game theory for devising robust decision-making criteria, systems dynamics and cost escalation modelling, as well as risk-based & economic-based alternatives selection methodologies. This book will be an eye-opener for many PRM practitioners, helping to increase their chances of project success by properly handling inescapable project-complexity and deep-uncertainty implications in specific contexts.…

Condizione: As New. Unread book in perfect condition.

Condizione: New.

Condizione: New. In English.

Condizione: As New. Unread book in perfect condition.

Buch. Condizione: Neu. Druck auf Anfrage Neuware - Printed after ordering - This book integrates for readers three areas of knowledge, pertaining to risk-based project decision making: project risk management (PRM), complexity theory, and decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU). Readers will appreciate that in practice, too often relevant complexity and uncertainty factors are either ignored or overlooked resulting in epic project failures. The author discusses a variety of methodologies and a decision-tree-type framework to determine why, when and how particular methodologies should be applied to ensure project success. These include nonlinear Monte Carlo techniques, a dynamic adaptive methodology to adapt to external environment changes, game theory for devising robust decision-making criteria, systems dynamics and cost escalation modelling, as well as risk-based & economic-based alternatives selection methodologies. This book will be an eye-opener for many PRM practitioners, helping to increase their chances of project success by properly handling inescapable project-complexity and deep-uncertainty implications in specific contexts.…

Condizione: New. 2024th edition NO-PA16APR2015-KAP.

Hardcover. Condizione: Brand New. 409 pages. 9.25x6.10x9.21 inches. In Stock.

Condizione: New.

Hardcover. Condizione: new. Hardcover. Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in majority of cases. Apparently, the referred methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects overlooked are the components associated with structural and delivery complexity.Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Anymismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term ('chronic') project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk compounding.Affinities of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A methodology tofactor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable to forecast project outcomes withhigh accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects including notorious projects-outliers: it has a much lower systematic error.The power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects. Results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are well-aligned.All built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available onthe book's companion website. A modified non-linear Monte Carlo methodology is developed to dramatically increase the accuracy of contingency development in complex project. It is achieved through counting of non-linear risk interactions in complex projects consistently that have been completely missed out by the traditional methods. Shipping may be from multiple locations in the US or from the UK, depending on stock availability.…

Condizione: New.

Condizione: New.

Condizione: As New. Unread book in perfect condition.

Condizione: New. In English.

Condizione: As New. Unread book in perfect condition.

Hardback. Condizione: New. Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in majority of cases. Apparently, the referred methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects overlooked are the components associated with structural and delivery complexity.Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Any mismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term ('chronic') project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk compounding.Affinities of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A methodology to factor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable to forecast project outcomes with high accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects including notorious projects-outliers: it has a much lower systematic error.The power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects. Results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are well-aligned.All built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available on the book's companion website.…

Condizione: New.

Hardback. Condizione: New. Project practitioners and decision makers complain that both parametric and Monte Carlo methods fail to produce accurate project duration and cost contingencies in majority of cases. Apparently, the referred methods have unacceptably high systematic errors as they miss out critically important components of project risk exposure. In the case of complex projects overlooked are the components associated with structural and delivery complexity.Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects: Non-linear Monte Carlo and System Dynamics Methodologies zeroes in on most crucial but systematically overlooked characteristics of complex projects. Any mismatches between two fundamental interacting subsystems - a project structure subsystem and a project delivery subsystem - result in non-linear interactions of project risks. Three kinds of the interactions are distinguished - internal risk amplifications stemming from long-term ('chronic') project system issues, knock-on interactions, and risk compounding.Affinities of interacting risks compose dynamic risk patterns supported by a project system. A methodology to factor the patterns into Monte Carlo modelling referred to as non-linear Monte Carlo schedule and cost risk analysis (N-SCRA) is developed and demonstrated. It is capable to forecast project outcomes with high accuracy even in the case of most complex and difficult projects including notorious projects-outliers: it has a much lower systematic error.The power of project system dynamics is uncovered. It can be adopted as an accurate risk quantification methodology in complex projects. Results produced by the system dynamics and the non-linear Monte Carlo methodologies are well-aligned.All built Monte Carlo and system dynamics models are available on the book's companion website.…

Condizione: new. Questo è un articolo print on demand.

Condizione: new. Questo è un articolo print on demand.

Taschenbuch. Condizione: Neu. This item is printed on demand - it takes 3-4 days longer - Neuware 412 pp. Englisch.

Condizione: New. Print on Demand.

Buch. Condizione: Neu. This item is printed on demand - it takes 3-4 days longer - Neuware -This book integrates for readers three areas of knowledge, pertaining to risk-based project decision making: project risk management (PRM), complexity theory, and decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU). Readers will appreciate that in practice, too often relevant complexity and uncertainty factors are either ignored or overlooked resulting in epic project failures. The author discusses a variety of methodologies and a decision-tree-type framework to determine why, when and how particular methodologies should be applied to ensure project success. These include nonlinear Monte Carlo techniques, a dynamic adaptive methodology to adapt to external environment changes, game theory for devising robust decision-making criteria, systems dynamics and cost escalation modelling, as well as risk-based & economic-based alternatives selection methodologies. This book will be an eye-opener for many PRM practitioners, helping to increase their chances of project success by properly handling inescapable project-complexity and deep-uncertainty implications in specific contexts. 412 pp. Englisch.…

Condizione: New. PRINT ON DEMAND.

Taschenbuch. Condizione: Neu. This item is printed on demand - Print on Demand Titel. Neuware -This book integrates for readers three areas of knowledge, pertaining to risk-based project decision making: project risk management (PRM), complexity theory, and decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU). Readers will appreciate that in practice, too often relevant complexity and uncertainty factors are either ignored or overlooked resulting in epic project failures. The author discusses a variety of methodologies and a decision-tree-type framework to determine why, when and how particular methodologies should be applied to ensure project success. These include nonlinear Monte Carlo techniques, a dynamic adaptive methodology to adapt to external environment changes, game theory for devising robust decision-making criteria, systems dynamics and cost escalation modelling, as well as risk-based & economic-based alternatives selection methodologies. This book will be an eye-opener for many PRM practitioners, helping to increase their chances of project success by properly handling inescapable project-complexity and deep-uncertainty implications in specific contexts.Springer-Verlag KG, Sachsenplatz 4-6, 1201 Wien 412 pp. Englisch.…

Condizione: New. Dieser Artikel ist ein Print on Demand Artikel und wird nach Ihrer Bestellung fuer Sie gedruckt. This book integrates for readers three areas of knowledge, pertaining to risk-based project decision making: project risk management (PRM), complexity theory, and decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU). Readers will appreciate that in practice, to.…